Bhubaneswar, Oct 18: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the possible formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 21, signaling the beginning of another weather system in the post-monsoon season. According to IMD sources, the system is likely to move west-northwestward, towards the central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. However, the department has not yet indicated the development of a deep depression or cyclone.

IMD Scientist Uma Shankar Das, in a post on his official X handle, stated that a cyclonic circulation up to 1.5 km altitude is currently active over the South Andaman Sea and nearby regions, creating favorable conditions for low-pressure formation.

Various global weather models have also predicted similar developments, though with differing timelines. The ECMWF model suggests formation around October 24, while IMD-GFS and NCEP predict it earlier, between October 21 and 22. The IMD’s Extended-Range Forecast (ERF) indicates a 30–40% probability of cyclogenesis, whereas the ECMWF sub-seasonal outlook shows a 20–30% chance between October 20–27.

Notably, this year has already witnessed 16 low-pressure systems over the Bay—higher than the usual 12–14—bringing widespread rainfall across Odisha and neighboring states.

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