Bhubaneswar, Oct 14: Most weather models predict the formation of a low-pressure area over the south Bay of Bengal on October 16, which may delay the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Odisha and central India.

According to forecasts, a trough line stretching from the central Arabian Sea to the south Bay of Bengal, along with strong westerly winds, will lead to the development of this low-pressure area. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) GFS model suggests it could evolve into a cyclonic storm within 48 hours, driven by high sea surface temperatures (29°-32°C), elevated Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TPCH), and low vertical wind shear.

By October 19, the system is expected to move towards the Arabian Sea, with a trough extending toward Gangetic West Bengal, impacting Odisha. Rainfall of 2-4 cm is likely in northern Odisha, including Bhubaneswar and Cuttack.

While there are differences in forecasts, all models agree on cyclone formation. The IMD anticipates a cyclonic storm, whereas the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) suggests it may develop into a depression near Tamil Nadu. Coastal areas of Tamil Nadu are expected to receive heavy rainfall, with some places forecasted to get over 20 cm.

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